- New Report
- Regional set of maps
- VA maps in zipped file
- Single County Planning Maps
- Shore Protection Methods
- Data
Governments Plan for Development of Land Vulnerable to Rising Sea Level: Northampton County, Virginia
Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise
As the second poorest county in Virginia, Northampton County's median income is only 2/3 the state median income.. Less than 3 percent of the county land has residential, commercial, or industrial development today. The county's planners generally view the county's prospects for future development as limited by its lack of drinking water and its relatively remote location. Nevertheless, some people believe that the current perception that Northampton is a long way from the Hampton Roads area will eventually be replaced with the equally valid perception that it is less than 20 miles from that metropolis. Some have speculated that the reduction in the toll for the bridge-tunnel may eventually encourage development. Nevertheless, planners expect that Northampton will remain largely undeveloped for the foreseeable future.
Northampton, like Accomack, has about one-third of the state's coastal wetlands (see Table). The county also has about 6 square miles of dry land within 2 feet above the tides, which ranks third behind Accomack and Virginia Beach. Nevertheless, the implications of sea level rise are very different. Northampton's lands along Chesapeake Bay are relatively high, with substantial cliffs near the mouth of the Bay. The Town of Cape Charles has wide sandy beaches along Chesapeake Bay, unlike the narrow beaches and muddy bay shores along Accomack County. Although it is entirely above the 5-ft (NGVD) contour, it is the lowest lying community in the county. Dunes run along the bay side to protect the town from moderate surges. Northampton's lowest dry land, however, is mostly on the barrier islands, all of which are undeveloped.
The absence of low lands on the mainland implies that aside from the Town of Cape Charles, the primary impact of sea level rise for the foreseeable future will probably be erosion. Because of the relatively high ground, the county has many potential bayfront lots with elevations above the 20-ft contour. By contrast, in Accomack County tidal marshes and forested wetlands tend to be between the dry land and the Bay.
Anticipated Response to Sea Level Rise
Compared with Accomack County local officials have not spent a great deal of time thinking about sea level rise; therefore our mapping approach followed a more data-driven approach, based primarily on an assessment of where development is likely in the future. .
The Nature Conservancy owns most of the ocean coast in Northampton County. The planners in Northampton-as well as TNC itself-agree that The Nature Conservancy has a policy to not hold back the sea with shoreline armoring or beach nourishment. Therefore, the barrier islands are shown in light green. Currently, TNC manages its islands, known as the Virginia Coastal Reserve, primarily for nature preservation, but also allows public visitation. Fisherman's Island is also shown in light green, because it is part of a National Wildlife Refuge.
The few developed areas where protection is certain are defined by the USGS land use and land cover data for developed areas. These represent the location of residential, industrial, commercial, and institutional (e.g., county office building) lands.
The most difficult part of this study was identifying those undeveloped areas that will probably be developed eventually and protected. Along Chesapeake Bay, looking several decades into the future, it is realistic to assume that wherever there is a road along the water, someone will eventually build a home. The proximity to Hampton Roads, the high ground, and the spectacular waterfront views all make development inevitable (unless shorefront lands are set aside for conservation through acquisitions or dedication as part of a new subdivision). Thus, the bayfront areas are likely to be protected. Because this is high ground threatened with erosion but not inundation, protection of the shorefront inherently protects areas immediately inland. On the eastern side of the county, we followed a similar approach. A greater portion of the coastal land there, however, is along wetlands rather than open water. The maps assume that development (and hence shore protection) is unlikely for areas that currently lack roads and for areas where the roads service farms along wetlands but not open water. The Planning District Commission staff provided one exception to this general approach: All of Willis Wharf is likely or certain to be protected.
Development pressures are not nearly as strong today in the Eastern Shore as in many other areas of the Virginia coastal zone, so the planners do not believe that it would be justified to assume that development will certainly occur along these coastal areas, or that landowners will definitely choose to hold back the rising seas. Therefore, the planning maps who more red than brown.
The stakeholder review meeting with local planners identified several changes
---All of the historic portion of Willis Wharf is certain to be protected. This historic community has homes that were originally on Hog Island, before that island was abandoned and converted to a wildlife refuge.
---Show the Village of Red Bank as certain to be protected..
---Show the Village of Oyster as certain to be protected.
---Show all of the Town of Cape Charles as certain to be protected.. Development is continuing and all land within the town borders will be developed soon.
Governments Plan for Development of Most Land Vulnerable to Rising Sea (PDF, 7 pp., 1.3 MB, was originally published in Environmental Research Letters , Issue 3, Volume 4 (2009).